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NHL

NHL betting intelligence

Hockey has the highest randomness floor of any major sport. Goaltender quality, special teams, and shot quality drive long-run edges through a fog of variance.

Goalies dominate prices

A starting goaltender announcement can swing an NHL moneyline by 20+ cents. Backup starts, back-to-backs, and late-season fatigue are the cleanest structural angles in the sport.

Shot quality > shot quantity

Expected-goals models (xG) significantly outperform raw shot totals. A team out-shooting opponents while losing on the scoreboard is often a positive regression candidate.

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