Baseball is a variance machine
Even the best MLB teams lose 60+ games a year. Even the worst win 50+. Daily edges are small, sample sizes are enormous, and bankroll discipline is non-negotiable.
Park factors and pitching
Pitcher matchups, bullpen fatigue, weather (especially wind), and park factors are the structural variables that move MLB totals. Most public bettors look at team records and miss the levers that actually matter.